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  • 深圳小产权房

    为什么房产税这个大杀器迟迟不出台呢?

    阅读:605发布时间:2018-10-03

      房产税,一直都被认为是可以降低房价的终极杀器,但是一直都是只是说在口头上的。为什么这个大杀器为什么就是迟迟不出来呢?那是因为它的杀伤力实在是太大了,可能在杀到房价的同时,也把很多人也给杀掉了。


      一个可以参考的例子是韩国。从卢武铉2005年制定了《综合不动产税法》开始,韩国政府用了5年时间、先后将三位前总统送进了监狱。尽管如此,此举依然引来了富人的愤怒,并最终导致卢武铉的左派在首都圈被弃。随后,经过李明博右派路线,直至2017年的文在寅(曾在卢武铉手下担任青瓦台秘书室长),韩国的执政路线才重回左派。而文在寅的“8·2房地产新政”,直接规定对第二套房的交易征税至50%,而第三套房的交易可征至60%。如此强悍的房产调控政策,也让韩剧中看似天价的首尔地区房价还不到北京的三分之一。


      同样是在东亚,同样是房产调控,但房价下降的却是别人家的房价。那么,如此血腥的房产税或调控政策就真的无法在中国实现么?非也。中国确实出台过一剑封喉的房产税,但那是在66年前——1948——1949年,当时14%的高额房产税都无法压制房价的暴涨。于是在1952年,中国国土建设部直接出台了征收房产交易利得税200%的核武器,瞬间打爆了爆炒房价的投机商,成功平抑了房价。所以,历史教会了我们,戒急用忍,其实都是有原因的。

      石油是工业生产和食品加工等行业的重要原料,由此它会带动许许多多相关商品的涨价,这种涨价最终会反映在商品的零售价格和生活必需品上,消费者会因此多付出很多成本,这就是输入性通货膨胀。


      2007年,原油价格最高涨到了每桶147美元,结果就是造成了国内严重的通货膨胀,物价大幅上涨,严重影响了居民生活水平和国内经济的发展;为了对冲这一波通货膨胀,当时央行动用了6次加息和连续上调存款准备金的严厉方式。然而,也正是央行这一波操作对房地产市场也产生了立竿见影的效果:当时的房地产行业大面积停摆,房价直线向下,像上海当时的房价连续十几个月下跌,最高跌幅高达35%,新闻上基本上都用崩盘来形容当时的市场。


      通过这个依然历历在目的历史回顾,我们可以看出两点:一是降房价并非传说中的绝不可能,而是要看是否真心愿意去降。二是原油价格上涨的输入性通胀具有极强的杀伤力,如果这次特朗普的伊朗战略使油价上涨到每桶80美元以上,那么到时候就不止是房价下跌的问题了,童鞋们可能要先准备点别的了。