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  • 深圳小产权房

    商品房开发商的噩梦来了,楼市大消息!

    阅读:594发布时间:2018-10-02

      近来,广东省房地产协会向各副会长单位下发紧急通知,称居处城乡缔造部已向广东、湖北、四川、江苏、河南、辽宁等省居处城乡缔造厅下发信件,要求对商品房预售容许的存留问题进行议论研讨。


      也就是说,广东省正在酝酿撤消商品房预售准则,将全面施行现房出售。而广东省的首要施行,可能对全国楼市的准则缔造产生影响。


      任何严峻方针的调整,都是从吹风开始。音讯一出,马上引起地产圈的大地震,不少开发商慌的一批,悲叹这作业几乎无法混了!


      那么,“撤消预售制”,毕竟意味着什么?关于楼市有怎样的影响?关于咱们购房者而言又有哪些改动呢?


      商品房开发商


      空手套白狼的游戏


      “钱是银行的,地是国家的,出了问题是他人的。”曾经,开发商们之所以能够仰仗高杠杆、高周转,张狂地获取高暴利,与“商品房预售”有很大联络。


      “商品房预售”,也就是民间所谓的“卖楼花”,其发源地在香港,一座房价快高到了银河系的城市学来的。创造人为大名鼎鼎的商人霍英东,时刻在1953年。


      这个准则的绝妙之处就在于,房企做得越大,越轻松,由于客户付的定金越来越多,房企自己投的钱不必见涨,就能够轻轻松松扩展规划。在推行后的一年多时刻里,霍英东就建了100多栋、折合约50多万平方英尺的房子,净赚600万。


      后来,我国内地在建立房地产准则时,基本上参看了香港的做法,所以“商品房预售”也就传入内地,并在1994年的《城市房地产处理法》和随后《城市房地产运营处理规律》、《商品房预售处理办法》等规律文件中予以明晰。房改之后被广泛运用到房地产的新房出售中。


      仰仗着“卖楼花”,开发商就能够玩“空手套白狼”的游戏,房子还没有建成,开发商就能够出售,拿到回款。这大大下降了开发商的资金本钱,行进了资金周转率。


      比方某大开发商,就提出了“拿地后4个月开盘、5个月资金回笼、6个月资金回正”的要求,仰仗预售准则,把高周转玩到了极致。


      在预售所带来的杠杆效应之下,开发商能够用很少的自有资金,大举拿地,什么阿猫阿狗只需有一点钱都能参加切分楼市这块巨大的蛋糕。


      高利催生之下,全国大大小小的开发商抵达了十多万家,房企负债率动辄70%甚至更高,楼市泡沫天然是不断胀大,房价天然也是水涨船高,但是风险和资金利息则转嫁到了购房者的身上。


      商品房预售了,等于产品还没出产出来,就现已有了买家,而且现已付钱了。开发商拿到了钱,就万事大吉了,哪管你房子质量过不过关,业主住的舒不舒服,关于购房者而言,毕竟拿到手的房子是好是坏,只能是靠人品了。


      所以这些年来,咱们看到林林总总的维权作业多次发生,交给季变维权季,说好的“五星级的家”惊变“无星级的家”!


    商品房开发商


      开发商的存亡局


      能够说,在“预售制”下,开发商与咱们购房者归于极不平衡的方位,现已交了钱的购房者,是天然的弱势。那么,这一准则现已施行了25年,为什么在这个时点俄然又开始议论预售制存废的问题了呢?


      今天不同往时,曾经咱们搞这个准则,是为了缓解开发商的资金困境,为了促进房地产商场敏捷打开,但现在各个财大气粗的开发商,还要玩着高周转高杠杆的花招,房产催生的巨额债款不只绑架了购房者、绑架了银行、更是绑架了整个宏观经济!


      预售制执行了这么多年,地工业也现已打开强壮,这一准则也算完成了自己的前史使命,是时分功遂身退 ,把占用的民众资金还给咱们了。


      但是,这一准则若是撤消,关于开发商而言,可谓是平地风波!在“去杠杆”的风暴下,金融机构被逼给开发商“断奶”,本就债款压力山大的房企此刻正是缺钱不止,资金链紧绷到了极致,而这一准则的撤消势必会更加乘人之危。


      尤其是那些中斗室企,资金实力本就细小,未来必定会有一大批死在资金链问题的沙滩上。当然,大房企和国企天然会永远在食物链的顶端,所以万科股票应声大涨。


      早在上一年,蜜姐就提出本年将是开发商的存亡之年,弱者越弱、强者越强,马太效应逐步强化。现在的数据现已印证了这一点——


      中指院2018百强房企榜单闪现,2017年,百强房企的商场占有率抵达前史新高。百强房企出售额占比抵达47.7%,较上年行进7.9个百,分点,增幅高于2016年3.3个百分点。


      明显,地产黄金十年已过,楼市不再是人人皆可参加、人人皆可暴富的游戏。尽管一时半会儿预售还撤消不了,但久远来看势在必行,开发商的冬天会很漫长。


    商品房开发商


      房产出资逻辑已然改动


      那么问题来了,这对咱们购房者而言,意味着什么呢?


      撤消“预售”,转向“现房”,这关于咱们购房者而言明显是有利益的,一手交钱、一手交房,有利于减少开发商的道德风险,能让咱们买到更靠谱的房子。


      但是作业也有两面性,“羊毛出在羊身上”,由于现售让开发商资金周转功率大大下降,资金本钱将明显上升,这一部分毕竟必将转移到购房者身上,至少让房价上涨10%到15%。而开发商的大规划洗牌,中斗室企的退出,很可能会呈现开发商卷款跑路、一地烂尾楼的状况。


      无论怎么,局势比人强,楼市的拐点现已到来,房产出资的逻辑现已改动。最近,我国房地产的巨头们不谋而合地改名,丢掉“房地产”的标签,比方保利地产更名为保利打开控股集团有限公司,万科也把万科地产改成了万科打开,万达把大连万达商业地产改成了大连万达商业处理.......


      “春江水暖鸭先知”,其实咱们也都知道,我国人根柢不缺房,人口老龄化又是大势所趋,再加上这次咱们调控的枪口再次调转,这些巨头们看的很了解,房地产商场会进入存量调整的年代,开发这部分现已凉了,比起多拿地多盖房而言,怎么让咱们把居处功率运用最大化,才是开发商现在最大的打开时机。


      而关于咱们购房者而言,闭着眼买房就能暴富的年代也现已曾经。现在出资房子,要从重视短期暴利增值改动为长时间持有收益。前期疯涨的几大城市房价现已呈现回调,若是调控高压不变,即使是一二线城市暴升的可能性也是微乎其微。


      但关于刚需来说,能上车仍是尽早上车,跟着调控的深化,买房必定会越来越难。正如地产大佬任志强所言,未来两年你买房可能会更困难,不是没贷款就是没资历,要不就是见不到好项目。


      总归,蜜姐仍是坚持一贯的观念,挑选比极力更重要,根据本身条件,挑选优质城市、优质地段、优质开发商,千万别在这一波大转折之中又成为了被收割的韭菜!