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  • 深圳小产权房

    自住要早买,投资需谨慎

    阅读:373发布时间:2018-10-01

      在我们说当下之前,回顾一下过去几年。


      自国内出现商品房至今,楼市绝大多数年份均为上行走势。特别是中国经济崛起初期,伴随着大量的城镇化,和飞速发展的经济增长,中国的楼市不仅仅是上行,还经历了数次暴涨节点。


      除2008年金融危机影响当年小幅度走跌以外, 剩余阶段几乎是让人赚的盆满钵满。


      我们回顾最近十年:从2008年以来,中国的房价涨幅一线城市超过最多超过6倍,即便是二三线城市至少也有2倍的涨幅,加上杠杆率的因素,无数人因炒房暴富,实现财富自由,迈入百万、千万资产的行列。


      在大势之下,推动者全国大面积的账上,几乎除了温州、鄂尔多斯康巴什这种特例以外,过去十年,闭着眼睛买,买哪儿都会赚。


      换句时髦话说:房产市场就是风口上的猪,市场热的时候,猪都能飞起来。


      但随着中国经济的放缓,官方对“房住不炒”的定义,大量史无前例的调控政策。加上透支未来几年的高房价。房地产的风口几乎落幕。


      炒房暴富的时代已经不在。


      换句话说,中国房产市场近几年,已经几乎没有再次暴击翻倍的可能性。


      但无论市场如何变化,房子是否从市场层面回归其本身的居住属性。


      对于自住客户来说,房子更多的都是居住功能。


      从字面意思就很好理解,自住要早买。讲的就是自己有居住需求的群体,这类群体不仅仅是第一次购房的年轻刚需,也包括人到中年的换房改善,以及给父母居住的养老需求。


      这些购房最终的目的定义为居住,那就应该早买。


    自住要早买


      原因有六点:


      第一,所谓早买早住。 中国市场绝大多数楼盘都是卖楼花卖期房,从选房下定签约贷款,到实际交房在市场热的时候前后时差可以达到3年。除了二手房,房子并不是随买随住,人生就这么短暂,早买一年,早住一年。租住和住进自己的房子,显然是不一样的。特别是对未来有结婚需求的刚需群体,购房后你的境遇很有可能截然不同。


      第二,市场变化大,对于刚需自住而言,面对整体上行的房产市场,买过房后,不巧跌了,也是非常小幅度的,放在上涨的长河里来说,只是一个小波澜,在数年后,无非就是利润相对小了一部分。而房子目的是自住,几乎上也不会去卖。相当于只是买的时候这个商品你的没打折,邻居们打折了而已。


      第三,刚需涨不起。跌了还有房子,但一旦市场涨了,对于刚需来说,很可能带来的就是购房降级。小幅度涨三房变两房,大幅度涨恐怕不少人就要市区变郊区,甚至直接买不起。而时光不会倒流,涨了之后后悔,就已经来不及了。


      第四,先上车后买票。所谓上车就是抓紧先买套房子,他的好处就是,市场好,要置换的目标涨了,自己的车票也涨了,市场行情不好,自己的车票没有暴击,要置换的目标也一样没有出现暴击。


      第五,限售。最近几年这一波行情后,超高密集的调控政策出台,大量城市出现限售防炒房,买到手想置换需要满足限售期要求。此时此刻早买的好处就特别明显,无论是针对前期选房失误,或先上车再置换的群体, 早一天买就意味着早一天解除限售。


      第六,最最关键的是,房产背后的隐形附加值。中国的房产,不仅仅是钢筋水泥,它的背后捆绑着中国特殊的国情——户籍户口。他对应着医疗社会福利,乃至于汽车牌照之类的各种证照办理,更不用说背后的学区学位相当一部分比例人购房为了教育,而且优质教育资源稀缺,房产对应好的教育资源,越晚越少。